Developing Predictive Programs

• What contributes to the formation of a predictive program?
  • the organization of the real world
  • the complexity of the phenomenon (simpler phenomena are easier to predict)
  • the importance of the predictive consequences
  • the past history of predictive successes and failures
  
  
• Q. How do you recognize a false prophet?
  A. By their false prophecies.
  incorrect predictions precipitate learning (especially when the predictions are consistently wrong)
  
  
• hysteresis: predictive programs that have proved useful in the past are difficult to dislodge when proved incorrect
  
  
• it is not the case that, on average, our expectations are correct: E.g. we over-react to potential danger: nature favors false alarms
  
  
• predictive programs vs real-world process
  
  NOTE: we can have accurate expectations for the wrong reasons